Estimating the effective reproduction number for heterogeneous models using incidence data.

The effective reproduction number, R ( t ) , plays a key role in the study of infectious diseases, indicating the current average number of new infections caused by an infected individual in an epidemic process. Estimation methods for the time evolution of R ( t ) , using incidence data, rely on the generation interval distribution, g(τ), which is usually obtained from empirical data or theoretical studies using simple epidemic models. However, for systems that present heterogeneity, either on the host population or in the expression of the disease, there is a lack of data and of a suitable general methodology to obtain g(τ). In this work, we use mathematical models to bridge this gap. We present a general methodology for obtaining explicit expressions of the reproduction numbers and the generation interval distributions, within and between model sub-compartments provided by an arbitrary compartmental model. Additionally, we present the appropriate expressions to evaluate those reproduction numbers using incidence data. To highlight the relevance of such methodology, we apply it to the spread of COVID-19 in municipalities of the state of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Using two meta-population models, we estimate the reproduction numbers and the contributions of each municipality in the generation of cases in all others.

Schramm-Loewner evolution and perimeter of percolation clusters of correlated random landscapes.

Motivated by the fact that many physical landscapes are characterized by long-range height-height correlations that are quantified by the Hurst exponent H, we investigate the statistical properties of the iso-height lines of correlated surfaces in the framework of Schramm-Loewner evolution (SLE). We show numerically that in the continuum limit the external perimeter of a percolating cluster of correlated surfaces with H ∈ [-1, 0] is statistically equivalent to SLE curves. Our results suggest that the external perimeter also retains the Markovian properties, confirmed by the absence of time correlations in the driving function and the fact that the latter is Gaussian distributed for any specific time. We also confirm that for all H the variance of the winding angle grows logarithmically with size.

The influence of statistical properties of Fourier coefficients on random Gaussian surfaces.

Many examples of natural systems can be described by random Gaussian surfaces. Much can be learned by analyzing the Fourier expansion of the surfaces, from which it is possible to determine the corresponding Hurst exponent and consequently establish the presence of scale invariance. We show that this symmetry is not affected by the distribution of the modulus of the Fourier coefficients. Furthermore, we investigate the role of the Fourier phases of random surfaces. In particular, we show how the surface is affected by a non-uniform distribution of phases.

How the site degree influences quantum probability on inhomogeneous substrates.

We investigate the effect of the node degree and energy E on the electronic wave function for regular and irregular structures, namely, regular lattices, disordered percolation clusters, and complex networks. We evaluate the dependency of the quantum probability for each site on its degree. For a class of biregular structures formed by two disjoint subsets of sites sharing the same degree, the probability P_{k}(E) of finding the electron on any site with k neighbors is independent of E≠0, a consequence of an exact analytical result that we prove for any bipartite lattice. For more general nonbipartite structures, P_{k}(E) may depend on E as illustrated by an exact evaluation of a one-dimensional semiregular lattice: P_{k}(E) is large for small values of E when k is also small, and its maximum values shift towards large values of |E| with increasing k. Numerical evaluations of P_{k}(E) for two different types of percolation clusters and the Apollonian network suggest that this observed feature might be generally valid.

Impact of tuberculosis treatment length and adherence under different transmission intensities.

Tuberculosis (TB) is a leading cause of human mortality due to infectious disease. Treatment default is a relevant factor which reduces therapeutic success and increases the risk of resistant TB. In this work we analyze the relation between treatment default and treatment length along with its consequence on the disease spreading. We use a stylized model structure to explore, systematically, the effects of varying treatment duration and compliance. We find that shortening treatment alone may not reduce TB prevalence, especially in regions where transmission intensity is high, indicating the necessity of complementing this action with increased compliance. A family of default functions relating the proportion of defaulters to the treatment length is considered and adjusted to a particular dataset. We find that the epidemiological benefits of shorter treatment regimens are tightly associated with increases in treatment compliance and depend on the epidemiological background.

Annealed Ising model with site dilution on self-similar structures.

We consider an Ising model on the triangular Apollonian network (AN), with a thermalized distribution of vacant sites. The statistical problem is formulated in a grand canonical ensemble, in terms of the temperature T and a chemical potential µ associated with the concentration of active magnetic sites. We use a well-known transfer-matrix method, with a number of adaptations, to write recursion relations between successive generations of this hierarchical structure. We also investigate the analogous model on the diamond hierarchical lattice (DHL). From the numerical analysis of the recursion relations, we obtain various thermodynamic quantities. In the µâ†’∞ limit, we reproduce the results for the uniform models: in the AN, the system is magnetically ordered at all temperatures, while in the DHL there is a ferromagnetic-paramagnetic transition at a finite value of T. Magnetic ordering, however, is shown to disappear for sufficiently large negative values of the chemical potential.

Height distribution of equipotential lines in a region confined by a rough conducting boundary.

This work considers the behavior of the height distributions of the equipotential lines in a region confined by two interfaces: a cathode with an irregular interface and a distant flat anode. Both boundaries, which are maintained at distinct and constant potential values, are assumed to be conductors. The morphology of the cathode interface results from the deposit of 2 × 10(4) monolayers that are produced using a single competitive growth model based on the rules of the Restricted Solid on Solid and Ballistic Deposition models, both of which belong to the Kadar-Parisi-Zhang (KPZ) universality class. At each time step, these rules are selected with probability p and q = 1 - p. For several irregular profiles that depend on p, a family of equipotential lines is evaluated. The lines are characterized by the skewness and kurtosis of the height distribution. The results indicate that the skewness of the equipotential line increases when they approach the flat anode and this increase has a non-trivial convergence to a delta distribution that characterizes the equipotential line in a uniform electric field. The morphology of the equipotential lines is discussed; the discussion emphasizes their features for different ranges of p that correspond to positive, null and negative values of the coefficient of the non-linear term in the KPZ equation.

Percolation model with continuously varying exponents.

This work analyzes a percolation model on the diamond hierarchical lattice (DHL), where the percolation transition is retarded by the inclusion of a probability of erasing specific connected structures. It has been inspired by the recent interest on the existence of other universality classes of percolation models. The exact scale invariance and renormalization properties of DHL leads to recurrence maps, from which analytical expressions for the critical exponents and precise numerical results in the limit of very large lattices can be derived. The critical exponents ν and ß of the investigated model vary continuously as the erasing probability changes. An adequate choice of the erasing probability leads to the result ν=∞, like in some phase transitions involving vortex formation. The percolation transition is continuous, with ß>0, but ß can be as small as desired. The modified percolation model turns out to be equivalent to the Q→1 limit of a Potts model with specific long range interactions on the same lattice.

Coin state properties in quantum walks.

Recent experimental advances have measured individual coin components in discrete time quantum walks, which have not received the due attention in most theoretical studies on the theme. Here is presented a detailed investigation of the properties of M, the difference between square modulus of coin states of discrete quantum walks on a linear chain. Local expectation values are obtained in terms of real and imaginary parts of the Fourier transformed wave function. A simple expression is found for the average difference between coin states in terms of an angle θ gauging the coin operator and its initial state. These results are corroborated by numerical integration of dynamical equations in real space. The local dependence is characterized both by large and short period modulations. The richness of revealed patterns suggests that the amount of information stored and retrieved from quantum walks is significantly enhanced if M is taken into account.

Effect of the local morphology in the field emission properties of conducting polymer surfaces.

In this work, we present systematic theoretical evidence of a relationship between the point local roughness exponent (PLRE) (which quantifies the heterogeneity of an irregular surface) and the cold field emission properties (indicated by the local current density and the macroscopic current density) of real polyaniline (PANI) surfaces, considered nowadays as very good candidates in the design of field emission devices. The latter are obtained from atomic force microscopy data. The electric field and potential are calculated in a region bounded by the rough PANI surface and a distant plane, both boundaries held at distinct potential values. We numerically solve Laplace's equation subject to appropriate Dirichlet's condition. Our results show that local roughness reveals the presence of specific sharp emitting spots with a smooth geometry, which are the main ones responsible (but not the only) for the emission efficiency of such surfaces for larger deposition times. Moreover, we have found, with a proper choice of a scale interval encompassing the experimentally measurable average grain length, a highly structured dependence of local current density on PLRE, considering different ticks of PANI surfaces.

Exact evaluation of the cutting path length in a percolation model on a hierarchical network.

This work presents an approach to evaluate the exact value of the fractal dimension of the cutting path d(f)(CP) on hierarchical structures with finite order of ramification. Our approach is based on a renormalization group treatment of the universality class of watersheds. By making use of the self-similar property, we show that d(f)(CP) depends only on the average cutting path (CP) of the first generation of the structure. For the simplest Wheastone hierarchical lattice (WHL), we present a mathematical proof. For a larger WHL structure, the exact value of d(f)(CP) is derived based on a computer algorithm that identifies the length of all possible CP's of the first generation.

Distribution of scaled height in one-dimensional competitive growth profiles.

This work investigates the scaled height distribution, ρ(q), of irregular profiles that are grown based on two sets of local rules: those of the restricted solid on solid (RSOS) and ballistic deposition (BD) models. At each time step, these rules are respectively chosen with probability p and r=1-p. Large-scale Monte Carlo simulations indicate that the system behaves differently in three succeeding intervals of values of p: I(B) ≈ [0,0.75),I(T) ≈ (0.75,0.9), and I(R) ≈ (0.9,1.0]. In I(B), the ballistic character prevails: the growth velocity υ(∞) decreases with p in a linear way, and similar behavior is found for Γ(∞) (p), the amplitude of the t(1/3)-fluctuations, which is measured from the second-order height cumulant. The distribution of scaled height fluctuations follows the Gaussian orthogonal ensemble (GOE) Tracy-Widom (TW) distribution with resolution roughly close to 10(-4). The skewness and kurtosis of the computed distribution coincide with those for TW distribution. Similar results are observed in the interval I(R), with prevalent RSOS features. In this case, the skewness become negative. In the transition interval I(T), the system goes smoothly from one regime to the other: the height distribution becomes apparently Gaussian, which motivates us to identify this phenomenon as a transition from Kardar-Parisi-Zhang (KPZ) behavior to Edwards-Wilkinson (EW) behavior back to KPZ behavior.

Controlling self-organized criticality in sandpile models.

We introduce an external control to reduce the size of avalanches in some sandpile models exhibiting self-organized criticality. This rather intuitive approach seems to be missing in the vast literature on such systems. The control action, which amounts to triggering avalanches in sites that are near to become critical, reduces the probability of very large events, so that energy dissipation occurs most locally. The control is applied to a directed Abelian sandpile model driven by both uncorrelated and correlated depositions. The latter is essential to design an efficient and simple control heuristic, but has only small influence in the uncontrolled avalanche probability distribution. The proposed control seeks a trade-off between control cost and large event risk. Preliminary results hint that the proposed control works also for an undirected sandpile model.

Dynamical programming approach for controlling the directed Abelian Dhar-Ramaswamy model.

A dynamical programming approach is used to deal with the problem of controlling the directed abelian Dhar-Ramaswamy model on two-dimensional square lattice. Two strategies are considered to obtain explicit results to this task. First, the optimal solution of the problem is characterized by the solution of the Bellman equation obtained by numerical algorithms. Second, the solution is used as a benchmark to value how far from the optimum other heuristics that can be applied to larger systems are. This approach is the first attempt on the direction of schemes for controlling self-organized criticality that are based on optimization principles that consider explicitly a tradeoff between the size of the avalanches and the cost of intervention.

Periodic forcing in a three-level cellular automata model for a vector-transmitted disease.

A periodically forced two-dimensional cellular automata model is used to reproduce and analyze the complex spatiotemporal patterns observed in the transmission of vector infectious diseases. The system, which comprises three population levels, is introduced to describe complex features of the dynamics of the vector-transmitted dengue epidemics, known to be very sensitive to seasonal variables. The three coupled levels represent the human, the adult, and immature vector populations. The dynamics includes external seasonality forcing, human and mosquito mobility, and vector control effects. The model parameters, even if bounded to well-defined intervals obtained from reported data, can be selected to reproduce specific epidemic outbursts. In the current study, explicit results are obtained by comparison with actual data retrieved from the time series of dengue epidemics in two cities in Brazil. The results show fluctuations that are not captured by mean-field models. It also reveals the qualitative behavior of the spatiotemporal patterns of the epidemics. In the extreme situation of the absence of external periodic drive, the model predicts a completely distinct long-time evolution. The model is robust in the sense that it is able to reproduce the time series of dengue epidemics of different cities, provided that the forcing term takes into account the local rainfall modulation. Finally, an analysis is provided of the effect of the dependence between epidemics threshold and vector control actions, both in the presence and absence of human mobility factor.

Ising model on the Apollonian network with node-dependent interactions.

This work considers an Ising model on the Apollonian network, where the exchange constant J(i,j) approximately 1/(k(i)k(j))(mu) between two neighboring spins (i,j) is a function of the degree k of both spins. Using the exact geometrical construction rule for the network, the thermodynamical and magnetic properties are evaluated by iterating a system of discrete maps that allows for very precise results in the thermodynamic limit. The results can be compared to the predictions of a general framework for spin models on scale-free networks, where the node distribution P(k) approximately k(-gamma) , with node-dependent interacting constants. We observe that, by increasing mu , the critical behavior of the model changes from a phase transition at T=infinity for a uniform system (mu=0) to a T=0 phase transition when mu=1 : in the thermodynamic limit, the system shows no true critical behavior at a finite temperature for the whole mu > or = 0 interval. The magnetization and magnetic susceptibility are found to present noncritical scaling properties.

Multiple-well invasion percolation.

When the invasion percolation model is applied as a simplified model for the displacement of a viscous fluid by a less viscous one, the distribution of displaced mass follows two distinct universality classes, depending on the criteria used to stop the displacement. Here we study the distribution of mass for this process, in the case where four extraction wells are placed around a single injection well in the middle of a square lattice. Our analysis considers the limit where the pressure of the extraction well Pe is zero; in other words, an extraction well is capped as soon as less viscous fluid reaches that extraction well. Our results show that, as expected, the probability of stopping the production with small amounts of displaced mass is greatly reduced. We also investigate whether or not creating extra extraction wells is an efficient strategy. We show that the probability of increasing the amount of displaced fluid by adding an extra extraction well depends on the total recovered mass obtained before adding this well. The results presented here could be relevant to determine efficient strategies in oil exploration.

Tsallis scaling and the long-range Ising chain: A transfer matrix approach.

A numerically efficient transfer matrix (TM) approach is introduced to investigate the long-range Ising spin chain. Results obtained within this procedure are primarily used to verify the Tsallis scaling hypothesis for long-range systems with an alpha power-law decay of the interaction constants, both in the extensive (alpha>1) and nonextensive (alpha<1) regimes. Results for finite-size systems, taking into account all interactions between spins up to 24 sites apart, show that the conjecture is satisfied with a very good precision (less than 0.004%) for all temperature intervals. This TM procedure is further used to investigate several other thermodynamic and critical properties of this system, and it may also be extended to similar one-dimensional long-range systems.